Dec 1, 2016

Impact analysis of demonetization in India

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Pavan Kumar Vijay

Last week on November 8, when the whole world was waiting for the outcome of US presidential elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi came out with his master stroke on corruption, counterfeit currency, terrorism and black money by announcing demonetisation and ceasing Rs 500 and Rs. 1000 notes as a part of legal tender in India.

The Reserve Bank of India manages currency in India and derives its role in currency management on the basis of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 and a new redesigned series of Rs 500 banknote, in addition to a new denomination of Rs 2000 banknote is in circulation since November 10, 2016.The new redesigned series is also expected to be introduced to the banknote denominations of Rs 1000, Rs 100 and Rs 50 in the coming months.

The term demonetisation is not new to the Indian economy. The highest denomination note ever printed by the Reserve Bank of India was the Rs 10,000 note in 1938 and again in 1954. But these notes were demonetised in January 1946 and again in January 1978, according to RBI data.

Since less than 5 percent of population in India had access to such notes and most banks never had such currency notes, demonetisation did not have a big impact on the country. The decision was taken to curb the illegal use of high denomination currency which was used for corrupt deals in the country.

However, with the latest round of demonetisation, the common public and bankers are undoubtedly facing hardship since more than 85 percent of currency in circulation has been rendered illegal in one single stroke. Demonetisation is surely hampering the current economy and will continue to do so in the near term and will also impact India’s growth for the coming two quarters but will have positive long lasting effects. The question that arises is why demonetisation was required at this point of time. There are certain pros and cons of demonetisation.

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